Econometric Modeling and Forecasting

Applied econometrics is where economic theory meets applied statistics. Forefront Economics has extensive experience with applied econometrics including simple regression, conditional demand modeling, and simultaneous systems of equations. These techniques offer powerful tools for forecasting and simulation, including:

  • Customer Usage Analysis and Evaluation
  • Sales Forecasting
  • Time Series Modeling for Trend Detection and Forecasting

Example Client Projects:

  • Sales Forecasting
    • Client wanted a long-term forecast of sales within each of several operating districts for system planning purposes. Forefront Economics developed a forecast and a system by which the client could easily make changes and generate a new forecast. Geographically defined sales data were regressed on several theoretically important explanatory variables. Resulting equations were used with county level projections of driver variables to produce the long-range forecast.
  • Energy Program Evaluation
    • Client wished to determine the energy savings from a program designed to reduce residential energy usage. Forefront Economics combined program, survey, billing, and weather data to estimate a conditional demand model. The results were used to simulate the program savings.
  • Trend Estimation and Forecasting
    • Client wanted to determine the condition of leading indicators of local housing market strength. Forefront Economics used time-series methods to estimate and predict the underlying trend in a number of housing related series.

Tools Used:
Forefront Economics uses the extensive statistical and econometric power available in software from the SAS Institute including SAS/STAT® and SAS/ETS®. You can learn more about these and other packages by visiting the SAS Institute.